Mantra…

September was definitely worth remembering, it was a good month. While i did not make much of the market as compared to some guys, what i can be proud of is having Zero losing trades.

Anyway, i’m getting impatient here.

The USD’s not showing any signs of retracing and the build up to Oct interest rates statement could mean more oppurtunities. I just need to knock some sense into my head…..NEVER GO AGAINST THE TREND JEST!… Now don’t even think of shorting the GBP.

But the Aussie, geez! Aren’t you tmepted to short it??? Never play with fire…NEVER….arghhh the devil! Never! Patience please buy the retracement. Patience…

Shopping! Here’s the list…

Yes. I’m intending to satisfy my craving…my lust…for books.

You gotta love Amazon, look at the sheer amount of books they have. Anyway for those who are interested to have a sneak peek at my wish list…

1. Inside the House of Money: Top Hedge Fund Traders on Profiting in the Global Markets – Steven Drobny
2. The Alchemy of Finance (Wiley Investment Classics) – George Soros (thanks to Kancheong for reccomending)
3. Pring on Price Patterns : The Definitive Guide to Price Pattern Analysis and Intrepretation – Martin J. Pring (thanks to Mike for reccomending)
4. Peter L. Bernstein Classics Boxed Set : Capital Ideas, Against the Gods, The Power of Gold – Peter L. Bernstein
5. Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics (Agora Series) – William Bonner
6. The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World – Alan Greenspan
7. Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience – Ben S. Bernanke
8. Trader Vic–Methods of a Wall Street Master – Victor Sperandeo

I still have a line waiting in the saved list but i guess this should be enough to keep me busy for the net 6months or so.

FX Trades and more ramblings on the Dollar Index

I have just cleared two trades with a gain 180pips:

SHORT AUDJPY @ 100.12, bought back @ 98.75 for 137pips
SHORT GBPUSD @ 2.0205, bought back @ 2.0152 for 53 pips

The performance as below,
SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +704pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +709pips

On the Dollar Index

I’m not trying to play against the trend but as we look further into the Index, the weekly and the daily is suggesting that we are likely to see a bottoming formation in the near term.
The momentum in weekly Macd is showing signs of weakening, RSI 14 at mark 30 proved to be a strong support zone for the index.

On the daily, the candles showed signs of weak downward movements, as if its not willing to move down anymore, well it could be consolidating, we’ll just have to see from here. Technical indicators like the MACD and RSI are already showing diverging signals.

Why is it safer to go long on the dollar now? One, you can set close stops. I personally believe so because the dollar has never been so attractive, and no other dollar pair, other than the Euro has managed to cap a new high against dollar even as dollar keeps making a new low…esp the GBP, its proving to be very very vulnerable as of late. I have made a note to myself to keep the GBP shorts on dollar rallys until the credit fears in Britain eases.

Chart Focus : DBS

For pakbosee,

I have attached the requested study in a picture below. Please read with discretion.

Chart Focus : Observations on Correlations

Will the Dollar Index ever retrace? It seems like almost every other currency has been treating the USD like a worthless piece of paper except for one….the GBPUSD. So here’s the plan, i’m expecting a retracement to occur on the selling real soon, and most likely the worst hit will be GBPUSD. Considering its weakness and what not. So when it comes, i’ll remind myself…short the Cable, just hope we don’t break the circuits.

Chart Focus – Mini Dow

Dow is approaching reistance areas, 14000 – 14100 should be closely watched. Expect to see some selling done at these price level. For patterns, we are likely looking at a possible double top or a range breakout indicating dow making new highs. At the current price level and considering the fundamentals i’m very tempted to play down the bullish sentiments.

Chart Focus – GBPUSD…

Is there something wrong with Cable? In the last trade, i placed my stops so far that i literally relieved myself off a potential 250pips profit (settled for a mere 106pips), the selling was voracious and happened in a such short time. I’m considering the possibility of going long again, we’re likely looking at the cheap zone.

Mourinho Leaves Chelsea…

We could see it coming, now what Mr Roman? Guus Hiddink? I think Chelsea just lost themselves a very valuable asset.

Mourinho Leaves Chelsea by `Mutual Consent’ After Three Years

By Grant Clark

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) — Chelsea coach Jose Mourinho has left the English soccer team, ending a three-year reign marked by domestic trophies and disputes with owner Roman Abramovich.

“Chelsea and Jose Mourinho have agreed to part company by mutual consent,” Chelsea said in a statement on its Web site.

Mourinho, 44, sent text messages to senior players, including captain John Terry, informing them of his departure yesterday, less than 24 hours after a 1-1 home draw with Rosenborg in the Champions League, the Times reported. Chelsea spokesman Simon Greenberg couldn’t be reached for comment.

The Portuguese coach led Chelsea to the Premiership title in his first two seasons and came close to leaving last season after clashing with Russian billionaire Abramovich over player recruitment and the team’s style of play. Chelsea has struggled in the new campaign and is fifth in the Premier League following a defeat to Aston Villa and draws with Liverpool and Blackburn…

Full Report, click here.

Dollar Demise, Trade Updates…

Did Ben Just did the US a favor by cutting the rates by 0.5 points? The rate cut pretty much sealed the long term fundamental fate of the USD. It looks like we are likely to see an extended dollar devaluation.

So heres the plan, sell dollar rallies. I’m pretty convinced that we are likely to see a further prostitution of the Dollar.

Dollar Near Record Low Versus Euro Before Bernanke’s Testimony

By Stanley White and David McIntyre
Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) –
The dollar traded within a half- cent of its record low versus the euro before
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s congressional testimony on the
mortgage market and economic growth.

Traders are betting the central
bank may reduce borrowing costs further this year as the worst housing slump in
16 years threatens economic growth. The first U.S. interest-rate cut since June
2003 on Sept. 18 has pushed the dollar to a 15-year low against an index of six
major currencies.

“We’re going to see a continuation of U.S. dollar
weakness against the euro,” said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at ABN Amro
Holding NV in Sydney. “Bernanke will talk about the housing market and how that
could flow through to the rest of the economy. The possibility of more U.S. rate
cuts is completely open.”

The dollar traded at $1.3975 per euro at 9:18
a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3957 late in New York yesterday. It reached a record low
of $1.3988 on Sept. 18 after the Fed’s rate decision and will finish the year
around $1.42 per euro, Gibbs forecast. The U.S. currency was at 115.97 yen from
116.10 yen yesterday.

The U.S. currency has lost 5.7 percent this year
versus the euro as traders bet the Fed would cut interest rates while the U.S.
economy slowed. The European Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate is 4
percent…

Full Report, click here.

Anyway, an update for my trades,

I collected some points from playing some Geppie longs and Cable. Here’s the latest pip count.

SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +514pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +519pips

Closed Trades & Updates…

Well the rumours of rate drop really did fuel quite a sell off on the USD. We have seen the return of the carries as well, but for how long? While im quite sure that USD is already damned, i can’t make out much abt strategising the carry trades.

Anyway, I have cleared 2 positions The EURUSD and NZDUSD. Details below.

EURUSD Long @ 1.3618, stopped @ 1.3848 for 230pips
NZDUSD Long @ 0.6949, stopped @ 0.7098 fpr 149pips

SEP
Realised Loss : -0pips
Realised gains: +408pips

YTD
Realised Loss : -295pips
Realised gains: +413pips